WARC forecasts 11.9 per cent global adspend growth this year, with social, search and retail media taking 66.4 per cent of the total and 70 per cent by 2028.
Global advertising spend will grow 11.9 per cent this year to $1.34trn, about £1.02trn, according to WARC Media’s latest Global Ad Spend Forecast, and almost all of that growth is going to three channels. Social, search and retail media will take 66.4 per cent of all advertising money in 2026, rising to 70 per cent by 2028, as Decision Marketing reported.
Search is forecast to grow 14.2 per cent to $295.7bn and retail media 14.3 per cent to $202.1bn. Video on demand, the ad-funded streaming tier, rises 15.1 per cent to $48.4bn and digital out-of-home 13.7 per cent to $21.7bn. Social media is the fastest-growing channel of all, and WARC says AI-powered buying and creative tools are a big part of what is driving the increase.
The growth is concentrated in a small number of platforms. James Macdonald, co-founder of the ad tech firm Limelight, said spend was flowing to “a handful of major platforms”, and several executives quoted alongside the forecast made the same warning: more money in the market does not mean better returns. “Growth alone won’t make campaigns more effective,” said Piero Pavone, chief executive of Preciso.
An 11.9 per cent rise in a year of weak economic growth tells you how much of advertising is now a tax on commerce rather than a discretionary spend. Search, retail media and social are the channels closest to the point of purchase, and they are mostly owned by Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Every forecast this autumn, from the IAB’s UK figures to this one, says the same thing.
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