UK Christmas online spending to hit a record £28.5bn as AI shopping traffic soars, Adobe says

UK shoppers are expected to spend a record £28.52bn online between 1 November and 31 December, up 6.2% on last year, according to a forecast from Adobe Digital Insights. The research also predicts that traffic to retail websites from generative AI tools will jump 214% year on year over the two months, as Retail Gazette reported. Total ecommerce sales for the fourth quarter are forecast to rise 6.4% to £40bn.

The figures

Black Friday is set to be the biggest online shopping day of the year, with £1.24bn of spending, up 7.1%. The four days of Cyber Weekend are forecast to bring in £4.05bn, up 6.6%, and Adobe expects Cyber Monday to pass £1bn in a single day for the first time.

Discounts are expected to deepen as the season goes on, from an average of 12% in early November to 18% before Black Friday and 25% over Cyber Weekend. Adobe expects shoppers to use those deals to trade up, with sales volumes in the most expensive product category forecast to rise by more than 13%. Personal care, sporting goods and electronics should see some of the strongest premium growth.

Shoppers will also stock up on basics, with online orders for clothing essentials forecast to rise 215% during Cyber Week compared with pre-season levels. Vivek Pandya, director at Adobe Digital Insights, said consumers were making the most of lower prices across both premium products and household essentials. Revenue share from social networks is expected to rise 24%, and from influencer partnerships 7%.

Why it matters

The headline number is a record, but the growth is steady rather than spectacular. Last Christmas, UK shoppers spent £26.9bn online, up 4.1%, according to Adobe figures reported by CMOtech, so this year’s forecast is a faster rise from a high base. It also sits next to a record £14bn of UK ad spend forecast for the Christmas quarter, with retail media growing fastest.

The AI figure is the one to watch. Adobe says AI referrals to retail sites are growing from a small base, but a 214% rise means more shoppers will arrive having already compared products and prices in a chatbot. For retailers that means product data, reviews and pricing need to read well to a machine, not just to a person scrolling a homepage.

There are risks to the forecast. UK consumer confidence suffered its biggest fall since Covid in October, and Royal Mail has paused its delivery changes without fully settling fears over the Christmas post. Adobe’s numbers suggest shoppers will still spend, but on their own terms: waiting for the discount, then buying better.